Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan will headline UFC Vegas 122 on October 10, with both middleweights looking to move closer to a championship opportunity. Allen enters with more experience against elite opponents, while Duncan brings a five-fight winning streak into his first UFC main event.Our UFC Vegas 122 Predictions examine the main event, key matchups and possible outcomes across the card. The event takes place at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with several fighters looking to improve their positions in their respective divisions.
UFC Vegas 122 Date, Venue and Fight Card Details
UFC Vegas 122 takes place on Saturday, October 10, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event features a five-round middleweight main event between Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan.
The preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 8 p.m. ET. Fans in the United States can watch the event live on Paramount+.
| Event details | Information |
| Event | UFC Vegas 122 |
| Main event | Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan |
| Date | October 10, 2026 |
| Venue | Meta APEX, Las Vegas |
| Preliminary card | 5 p.m. ET |
| Main card | 8 p.m. ET |
| US broadcast | Paramount+ |
The middleweight headliner carries the greatest divisional significance, but the supporting card also features experienced veterans and emerging prospects.
UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Predictions
The main card includes five scheduled matchups across the middleweight, lightweight, strawweight, featherweight and bantamweight divisions.
| Fight | Weight class | Prediction |
| Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan | Middleweight | Allen by submission |
| Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert | Lightweight | Camilo by decision |
| Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza | Women’s strawweight | Godinez by decision |
| Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III | Featherweight | Fili by decision |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi | Bantamweight | Wellmaker by KO/TKO |
These selections reflect stylistic matchups, recent performances and potential paths to victory. They are predictions rather than confirmed outcomes, and every fight presents opportunities for an upset.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction
Brendan Allen 27-7 enters UFC Vegas 122 on a three-fight winning streak. His recent victories over Marvin Vettori, Reinier de Ridder and Edmen Shahbazyan have strengthened his position among the leading middleweight contenders.
Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2 has won five consecutive fights, including important victories over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. The British striker has developed into a dangerous opponent through his athleticism, movement and ability to attack from unusual angles.
Can Duncan Keep the Fight Standing?
Duncan’s strongest opportunities should come during striking exchanges. He uses quick footwork, spinning attacks and unpredictable combinations to make opponents uncomfortable. His recent performances suggest he can compete with established middleweights, but Allen presents a different challenge.
Allen has the grappling experience to change the fight’s direction. He can pressure Duncan against the fence, attack takedowns and create submission opportunities during scrambles. Duncan must maintain distance and avoid allowing Allen to establish control.
UFC Vegas 122 Main Event Prediction
Allen’s experience in five-round fights gives him an important advantage. He has faced a deeper collection of established contenders and demonstrated his ability to recover from difficult exchanges.
Duncan could win if he maintains striking distance and catches Allen during an aggressive entry. However, Allen has more ways to win, particularly if the contest moves to the ground.
Prediction: Brendan Allen wins by submission in Round 3.
The winner could enter discussions about the next major middleweight matchup. With uncertainty surrounding the championship picture, this result could significantly affect the UFC middleweight rankings.
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert Prediction
Matheus Camilo 11-3 faces Jai Herbert 14-6-1 in an interesting lightweight matchup. Camilo brings an aggressive approach, while Herbert offers experience and a dangerous long-range striking game.
Herbert performs best when he controls distance with his jab and straight punches. His height and reach can create problems for opponents who struggle to close the gap. However, he becomes more vulnerable when opponents force exchanges at close range.
Camilo should look to pressure Herbert, attack the body and prevent him from establishing a comfortable rhythm. His success will depend on entering striking range without absorbing too many clean punches.
Prediction: Matheus Camilo wins by unanimous decision.
Camilo’s pressure could help him win rounds, although Herbert’s striking accuracy makes this a competitive matchup.
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza Prediction
Loopy Godinez 14-6 meets Ketlen Souza 17-6 in a women’s strawweight contest. Godinez enters with an established reputation for wrestling, physical pressure and consistent activity.
Souza offers a different challenge through her striking and willingness to exchange punches. She can make the fight competitive if she maintains distance and prevents Godinez from controlling the clinch.
Godinez should have the advantage whenever she secures takedowns or forces extended grappling exchanges. Her ability to combine wrestling with steady striking could prove decisive across three rounds.
Prediction: Loopy Godinez wins by unanimous decision.
Souza’s striking creates an upset opportunity, but Godinez has a clearer route to controlling the fight.
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III Prediction
Andre Fili 25-14, with one no contest, faces Kai Kamaka III 18-8-1 in a featherweight matchup between experienced strikers. Both fighters have the tools to make this a competitive three-round contest.
Fili uses movement, kicking combinations and experience against high-level UFC opposition. Kamaka can answer with boxing combinations and a willingness to fight at a demanding pace.
The outcome could depend on which fighter controls the center of the Octagon. Fili should benefit from mixing his attacks and avoiding prolonged exchanges where Kamaka can establish his rhythm.
Prediction: Andre Fili wins by split decision.
This is one of the more difficult main-card matchups to separate. Kamaka’s pressure could influence the judges if he consistently lands the cleaner combinations.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi Prediction
Malcolm Wellmaker 10-2 meets Otari Tanzilovi 10-2 in a bantamweight contest featuring two fighters looking to build momentum.
Wellmaker’s striking power creates a clear finishing opportunity. He can threaten opponents during exchanges and capitalize when they leave openings in their defense.
Tanzilovi must avoid becoming predictable while entering striking range. He could improve his chances by varying his attacks and forcing Wellmaker to work through longer exchanges.
Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in Round 2.
Wellmaker’s power gives him an attractive finishing route, but Tanzilovi remains capable of disrupting that approach if he controls the pace.
UFC Vegas 122 Preliminary Card Predictions
The preliminary card features several intriguing matchups, including experienced veterans competing against younger opponents. Julius Walker faces Gerald Meerschaert, while Niko Price returns against Leon Shahbazyan.
Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim also meet in a lightweight contest that could produce an entertaining striking battle.
| Fight | Weight class | Prediction |
| Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert | Middleweight | Walker by decision |
| Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim | Lightweight | Bonfim by decision |
| Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan | Welterweight | Price by KO/TKO |
| Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro | Light heavyweight | Ribeiro by KO/TKO |
| Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris | Heavyweight | Harris by KO/TKO |
| Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova | Women’s bantamweight | Pereira by decision |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Melissa Gatto | Women’s flyweight | Gatto by submission |
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Gerald Meerschaert brings extensive UFC experience and dangerous submission skills into this matchup. He remains a threat whenever opponents allow him to establish grappling positions.
Julius Walker should focus on maintaining top control without exposing himself to submission attempts. His ability to manage distance and avoid extended scrambles could determine the outcome.
Prediction: Julius Walker wins by decision.
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
Francisco Prado’s aggressive approach could create an exciting contest against Ismael Bonfim. Both fighters can compete in extended striking exchanges, although Bonfim’s boxing technique may provide the difference.
Bonfim should look to counter Prado’s forward pressure and land accurate combinations. Prado’s best chance comes from forcing a high-paced fight and preventing Bonfim from settling into a comfortable rhythm.
Prediction: Ismael Bonfim wins by unanimous decision.
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
Niko Price has built his UFC career around unpredictable finishes and an aggressive fighting style. He returns against Leon Shahbazyan, who will look to secure an important victory early in his UFC career.
Price’s experience could become decisive if the fight develops into a chaotic striking exchange. However, his defensive openings mean Shahbazyan cannot be dismissed.
Prediction: Niko Price wins by second-round KO/TKO.
Three Key Factors That Could Decide UFC Vegas 122
The card features several stylistic contrasts, but three factors deserve particular attention before fight night.
1. Allen’s Grappling Against Duncan’s Striking
The main event could change dramatically depending on where the action takes place. Duncan should have opportunities at long range, while Allen’s strongest advantage may come through wrestling and submissions.
2. Experience Against Momentum
Several established UFC fighters face opponents attempting to move up the rankings. Experience matters when fights become difficult, but younger competitors can create problems through speed, aggression and confidence.
3. Defensive Discipline
A number of fighters on this card prefer aggressive exchanges. Their ability to defend counters, maintain positioning and avoid unnecessary risks could prove more important than their offensive output.
For a broader look at how analysts evaluate upcoming cards, our UFC Fight Night previews and predictions explain the factors that influence individual matchups.
Which UFC Vegas 122 Fight Could Produce an Upset?
Christian Leroy Duncan presents one of the most interesting upset possibilities. Allen enters with a stronger résumé against established opponents, but Duncan’s athleticism and unpredictable striking could change the main event with one clean combination.
Kai Kamaka III also has a realistic opportunity against Andre Fili. Their featherweight contest could become closely contested if Kamaka maintains pressure and lands consistently.
An upset does not necessarily require a knockout. A fighter can overturn expectations through superior conditioning, tactical adjustments or a stronger performance in the final round.
What Is at Stake in the UFC Vegas 122 Main Event?
The middleweight division remains competitive, with several contenders seeking opportunities against the division’s leading fighters.
Allen can strengthen his case for a higher-ranked opponent by extending his winning streak. Duncan, meanwhile, has an opportunity to defeat a top-five contender and demonstrate that he belongs among the division’s elite.
A convincing victory could put either fighter into discussions involving former champions or other leading contenders. However, a championship opportunity would still depend on the UFC’s matchmaking decisions and the division’s wider situation.
Final Thoughts
Our UFC Vegas 122 Predictions favor Brendan Allen to defeat Christian Leroy Duncan through his superior grappling experience. However, Duncan’s recent form and striking ability make the main event far from straightforward.
Matheus Camilo, Loopy Godinez, Andre Fili and Malcolm Wellmaker are our other main-card selections. With experienced veterans and emerging contenders throughout the lineup, UFC Vegas 122 offers several competitive matchups before the promotion’s next major event.
FAQs
Who is fighting in the UFC Vegas 122 main event?
Brendan Allen faces Christian Leroy Duncan in a five-round middleweight main event on October 10, 2026.
Who is predicted to win Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan?
Our prediction favors Brendan Allen by third-round submission because of his grappling experience and ability to control difficult exchanges.
When and where is UFC Vegas 122 taking place?
UFC Vegas 122 takes place on Saturday, October 10, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What time does UFC Vegas 122 start?
The preliminary card starts at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
Where can fans watch UFC Vegas 122?
Fans in the United States can watch UFC Vegas 122 live on Paramount+. Broadcasting availability varies by country.
