Dan Hooker has a theory about how Usman Nurmagomedov’s UFC story begins and it starts with The Hangman himself. The veteran New Zealand lightweight told Submission Radio on August 30 that he fully expects the UFC to call him when they sign the undefeated PFL champion. His reasoning is direct, grounded in experience, and harder to dismiss than it first sounds.
What Happened
Usman Nurmagomedov 23-2-0 completed his PFL contract on July 31, 2026, when he knocked out Archie Colgan in Round 1 of the PFL New York main event. He moved to a free agent immediately after, and the UFC’s interest became public almost instantly. UFC President Dana White smiled broadly when asked about signing Nurmagomedov at a post-event press conference, saying simply: “Sure.”
The 28-year-old Dagestani carries an unbeaten record and trains at American Kickboxing Academy alongside UFC Welterweight (170 lbs / 77.1 kg) champion Islam Makhachev 26-3-0 and under the guidance of Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is widely regarded as the best lightweight outside the UFC. His management, led by Ali Abdelaziz, wants Ilia Topuria 16-2-0 as his first UFC opponent.
Hooker is not buying any of that. He believes the matchup reality of the UFC will deliver him to the Octagon first.
Key Details
Speaking on Submission Radio on August 30, Hooker explained his thinking clearly. He drew a direct comparison between his situation and two previous UFC debutants he had faced — Michael Chandler and Salahdine Parnasse 23-2-0, who he faces at UFC Paris on September 5 at Accor Arena in Paris, France.
Hooker said the UFC will call him because no ranked fighter will take the risk. He pointed out that ranked fighters and former two-division champions like Topuria would be unlikely to risk their ranking against an unranked debutant. He also pushed back directly on suggestions that Topuria would welcome Nurmagomedov to the UFC, saying the idea was unrealistic.
Hooker added that the personal motivation of ruining someone’s promotional debut in front of their supporters would give him extra drive. He said the opportunity to go to a fighter’s hometown and ruin their debut would give him a very fuzzy feeling.
Ali Abdelaziz told the Pound 4 Pound podcast that he predicts Nurmagomedov would stop Hooker by submission. Abdelaziz believes Nurmagomedov would beat the majority of the UFC lightweight division, naming Paddy Pimblett, Charles Oliveira, and Max Holloway as fighters Nurmagomedov would stop. He named Arman Tsarukyan as the only competitive fight at lightweight.
The Logic Behind Hooker’s Prediction
Hooker’s argument is built on a pattern the UFC has used for years. When a major free agent arrives without a UFC ranking, the promotion needs a credible but risk-tolerant opponent to give the debutant legitimacy without burning a top-ranked contender on an unproven quantity.
Chandler was exactly this situation when he joined the UFC in 2020. Hooker took the fight and lost via TKO in Round 1. Now he sees Nurmagomedov through the same lens. A 23-year-old record means nothing inside the Octagon until it is tested there. Ranked fighters at lightweight have title shots and ranking positions to protect. Hooker at 36 years old with nothing to lose is exactly the type of fighter the UFC turns to in these situations.
The UFC Lightweight (155 lbs / 70.3 kg) division currently has enough movement at the top to complicate a straightforward Nurmagomedov debut against a ranked opponent. Justin Gaethje holds the title. Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan are the most likely next challengers. None of those men are likely to volunteer for an unranked debutant.
What This Means for the Lightweight Division
Nurmagomedov’s UFC signing, whenever it happens, will immediately change the landscape of the lightweight division. Makhachev told reporters ahead of UFC 330 that Nurmagomedov could fight for the UFC title in his second fight if he wins his debut. Makhachev named Tsarukyan, Topuria, and Mauricio Ruffy as suitable debut opponents, saying Nurmagomedov could fight anyone in the top five.
The UFC Shanghai incident involving Usman Nurmagomedov at Umar’s main event loss on August 29 added an unexpected dimension to his story. The post-fight controversy brought his name into the mainstream conversation at exactly the moment his free agency is most active. Whether it impacts any UFC negotiations is unknown, but it certainly kept his name prominent. Full context of the incident is available in our Usman Nurmagomedov Song Yadong UFC Shanghai article and the Daniel Cormier Usman Nurmagomedov UFC Shanghai breakdown.
Hooker’s prediction carries a specific logic that goes beyond self-promotion. He has lived this situation twice. If the UFC does sign Nurmagomedov and the top-ranked fighters decline, The Hangman may be right that the call comes to West Linn or in this case, Auckland.
Background Context
Dan Hooker 24-14-0 trains at City Kickboxing in Auckland, New Zealand under head coach Eugene Bareman. He is currently ranked 8th at lightweight and heads into UFC Paris on a two-fight losing streak, having lost to Arman Tsarukyan via submission in November 2025 and to Benoit Saint-Denis via TKO at UFC 325 in January 2026. He faces Salahdine Parnasse at UFC Paris on September 5 in what he has described as another debut-ruining opportunity. Full preview is available in our UFC Paris Hooker vs Parnasse article.
Usman Nurmagomedov 23-2-0 is the current PFL Lightweight champion and a cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov. He trains at AKA alongside Makhachev and holds wins over Archie Colgan, Myles Price, and multiple Bellator and PFL champions. His two professional losses came against Umar — wait, those are Umar’s record. Usman’s professional record is 23-2-0 including the UFC Shanghai post-fight incident. His record before the UFC Shanghai controversy stood at 23-2-0 in professional MMA competition across Bellator and PFL.
Conclusion
Dan Hooker’s prediction that he will be Usman Nurmagomedov’s first UFC opponent is not wishful thinking. It is pattern recognition from a 36-year-old veteran who has lived through exactly this situation before. Ranked fighters protect their rankings. Debuts require risk-tolerant opponents. Hooker has taken that role once with Chandler and is positioning himself to take it again. Whether Nurmagomedov signs with the UFC before Hooker’s September 5 date in Paris is a separate question. But if the contract gets signed, The Hangman may be the first man standing across the Octagon from the most anticipated UFC debutant in years.
